Week 3 Meeting - 4/13/25

Week_1_Presentation.pdf

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Presentation slides for BCI's first general/Week 3 meeting.

Commentary:

• Keywords:

  • Crypto

  • Blockchain

  • Bitcoin

    • Halving: cuts the block reward to half

      • Occurs once every 4 years

      • Significance: makes Bitcoin more scarce --> Bitcoin rally
        

• Recent News:

  • Larry Fink's Take:

    • Larry Fink: the CEO and chairman of BlackRock, the biggest asset management company in the world.
      

  • Wells Fargo Seems to Agree:

    • Significance: business optimism plummeting in March --> shows that CEOs are wary of investing in expanding their businesses --> lowers GDP & increases chance of layoffs.
      

  • Stephen Miran's Proposals:

    • Stephen Miran:

      • Current position: chair of the Council of Economic Advisers of United States (CEA)

      • In the past: strategist at hedge fund Hudson Bay Capital

      • Writer of A User's Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System, the report widely believed to have served as the foundation for Trump administration's tariff policies.
        

  • Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations:

    • Inflation expectations (inflation a year ahead): 5.0% (March 2025) → 6.7% (April 2025)

      • Significance: highest in 44 years.

    • Consumer sentiment: 57.0 (March 2025) → 50.8 (April 2025)

      • Significance: April's figure is the lowest since June 2022 & 2nd lowest since 1952.
        

• Strategies:

  • What Should We Buy Now? - Bitcoin (head & shoulder pattern)​:

    • Inverse head and shoulder pattern:

      • “Right shoulder” region is a good place to start opening your positions

      • But if you even missed that chance → the second best spot to enter is the “retest” region

      • Even a stronger signal is when supplementary indicators are strong as well: 

        • RSI: indicates if an asset is oversold or over purchased

        • MACD: When the MACD line (blue line) is above the signal line, it’s over bought. When the MACD line (blue line) is below the signal line, it’s over sold.
          

  • What Should We Buy Now? - Bitcoin (liquidity soaker)​:

    • Bitcoin is almost directly correlated to the global M2 liquidity index.

    • This year, the global m2 liquidity index has gained notably.
      

  • What Should We Buy Now? - Bitcoin (next test: $88.5k)​:

    • BCI's trading tip: long Bitcoin once it breaks the $88.5k resistance level!